Each Group has four teams which were drawn out of four separate pots, so no team will compete with another team from the same pot. The pots (pictured above) each contain six teams and are determined based off FIFA world rankings, therefore the worst ranked team Jamaica were in the fourth pot, best ranked team USA were in the first pot and so on. From there, one team from each pot was drawn in order to form six Groups of four labelled A through to F with the criteria being that no team could face another team from its confederation. The two anomalies from this drawing are that hosts France had to be the first team drawn in Group A and that teams from UEFA (Europe) may face a team from their confederation due to there being nine teams to be spread across six groups.
That’s all fairly straightforward and something viewers of previous men’s World Cups will likely understand already, however this is where things start to get a lot more complicated. From here teams compete in a round robin to determine which nations will finish top two and progress to the round of 16 phase of the tournament. From there, the winners will progress to the quarter final, the semi-final, the final and then we’ll have our winner. However, quick maths will tell you that if first and second place from each of the six groups progress then we will be left with only 12 teams making up a round of 16, which is obviously four teams short. Therefore, the four best third place teams, based on points and then goal difference, will progress to the round of 16. Below is an example taken from the 2015 Women’s World Cup outlining how each third placed team performed in their particular group and the four teams who progressed to the round of 16 due to their superior points total and goal difference.
Whilst this is all quite complicated, it does get slightly more complex. Unfortunately due to the unpredictable nature of which teams will finish as the four best third place teams, it is impossible to have an entirely fixed round of 16 draw before the commencing of the tournament. The reason for this is that the third place teams will be placed into the round of 16 in a way that ensures no team will face a team from their Group again until at least the semi-finals. The way they can guarantee this is by assembling the round of 16 as shown below:
Winner of Group A will face: Third Place of Group C/D/E
Winner of Group B will face: Third Place of Group A/C/D
Winner of Group C will face: Third Place of Group A/B/F
Winner of Group D will face: Third Place of Group B/E/F
Looking at the statement made directly above and the table of third placed teams from 2015 we can analyse which first placed team will play which third placed team in a little more depth. First of all there is always exactly one scenario in which one winner can only face one team, in this case the winner of Group D had to play the third placed team of Group F due to the other two third placed teams being eliminated. This meant that the winner of Group C had to play the third placed team from Group A, as F was taken and B was eliminated. From here both the winner of Group A and the winner of Group B could play the third place team from Group C or D, in this case it is done alphabetically: A plays C, B plays D. To put this whole paragraph into one idea, the draw is started by necessity and then finished with alphabetical order.
Did you get all that!?
Not quite done yet, it’s time to talk controversy. The reason that I personally am one of this competition formats biggest detractors comes down to two topics: Leniency and Injustice.
Leniency
First of all, why must FIFA allow 24 nations to compete at this World Cup? Whilst of course anything can happen in football and many dramatic moments and upsets can be expected, we have five or six nations who really are at this tournament to make up the numbers. Whilst I don’t necessarily believe that New Zealand belong in this category they had to beat four teams who are all ranked 72 or worse. They proceeded to win 11-0, 6-0, 10-0, 8-0 and 8-0 on their way to qualification. Furthermore, why must 16 teams out of 24 be good enough to proceed to the knockout stages? Four teams who finish in the bottom half of their group will have the chance to win the whole tournament. Let’s take Norway and Korea for example, two teams who are separated in FIFA World Rankings by one, should be coming into this tournament trying to find a way to defeat the other and take second spot in their group. Instead, they will know that a draw will likely be enough for them to advance to the knockout stage and a loss coupled with a big victory over Nigeria will likely prove to be enough also. This atmosphere has the potential to diminish the quality of the tournament and whilst drama and quality competition will ultimately force this tournament to be a great success, I believe that leniency will strip back part of the quality.
Injustice
Whilst nations such as New Zealand and Nigeria once again receive a very easy run into the world cup, nations such as Switzerland, Colombia, Denmark and Belgium are arguably hard done by in their failure to qualify for the World Cup in France. Whilst this may be considered an injustice, most international tournaments have a certain number of underachievers and are missing some quality teams due to the unpredictable and cutthroat nature of qualifiers. However the main injustice of the draw comes down to the variance of fairness between all the groups. Why do winners from Groups A-D get to play a third place team whilst winners of Group E and F have to play a Runner Up? Why do the Runners up of Group B and D have to face a group winner whereas all the other Runners Up get to face each other? We can also go deeper, why do the winners of Groups E and F have to play a runner up and then likely a group winner, whereas the winner of Groups A-D get to play a third place team and then a runner up? I know its complex, but it seems unjust that all teams do not have equal opportunities.
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